Peterson Institute for International Economics

Global economy to slow in 2026, and outlook is clouded

Global economy to slow in 2026, and outlook clouded by war, other uncertainties

Disruptions associated with the Iran war—including to energy markets and supply chains—are likely to slow real global GDP growth, while raising inflation and clouding the outlook, said Karen Dynan, at PIIE’s Spring 2026 Global Economic Prospects event.

People gather after President Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, in Tehran. Picture taken on April 8, 2026.

WANA/Majid Asgaripour

Photo Credit: WANA/Majid Asgaripour

RealTime Economics

The US-Iran ceasefire is better than a wider war. That doesn't make it a US victory

Cullen S. Hendrix (PIIE)

April 8, 2026

Smoke rises after reported Iranian missile attacks in Doha, following the US and Israel strikes on Iran. Photo taken on March 1, 2026.

REUTERS/Mohammed Salem

Photo Credit: REUTERS/Mohammed Salem

RealTime Economics

How Russia and China are winning the war in Iran

Elina Ribakova (PIIE) and Alicia García-Herrero (Bruegel; Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

March 30, 2026

The logos of the EU and Mercosur are shown in this illustration.

IMAGO/Steinach via Reuters Connect

Photo Credit: IMAGO/Steinach via Reuters Connect

RealTime Economics

The EU-Mercosur agreement could tap a new source of critical minerals for the West

Monica de Bolle (PIIE)

April 7, 2026

Trade Talks Episode 0: Introduction to the Weekly Podcast

Trade Talks

Will Trump's pharmaceutical tariffs lower prices and secure supply chains? (Episode 209)

Chad P. Bown (PIIE) and Thomas J. Bollyky (Council on Foreign Relations)

April 6, 2026

What's New

Customer paying with cash in Washington, DC.

Prices Are High. Here's One Reason Not to Panic.

Jason Furman (PIIE)

April 10, 2026

via New York Times

Closeup of the US dollar.

Don't blame America's current account deficit on the dollar

Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)

April 13, 2026

Trade Talks Episode 0: Introduction to the Weekly Podcast

What is America's problem with the WTO? (Episode 210)

Chad P. Bown (PIIE) and Maria Pagán (Former US Ambassador to the World Trade Organization)

April 9, 2026

Cargo ships in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Photo taken March 11, 2026.

Global economy to slow in 2026, and outlook clouded by war, other uncertainties

Karen Dynan (PIIE)

April 9, 2026

PIIE Charts

War, uncertainty slow 2026 growth across advanced and emerging economies

War, uncertainty slow 2026 growth across advanced and emerging economies

Karen Dynan (PIIE)

April 9, 2026

Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

March 24, 2026

The Trump administration wants foreign investment pledges to boost several sectors that Biden targeted (featured)

The Trump administration wants foreign investment pledges to boost several sectors that Biden targeted

Gregory Auclair (PIIE) and Adnan Mazarei (PIIE)

February 11, 2026

Some countries will struggle to fulfill their investment pledges to President Trump

Some countries will struggle to fulfill their investment pledges to President Trump

Gregory Auclair (PIIE) and Adnan Mazarei (PIIE)

January 29, 2026

PIIE Insider LIVE

Olivier Blanchard on Eurobonds and optimism for Europe's future

April 14, 2026, 11:00 AM to 11:30 AM EDT

Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE) and Olivier Blanchard (PIIE)

Apr

14

Trade Winds

Trade 360 degrees: Trade Winds LIVE from DC!

April 15, 2026, 9:00 AM to 10:30 AM EDT

Chad P. Bown (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Mari Elka Pangestu (International Trade and Multilateral Cooperation, Indonesia), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) and Arvind Subramanian (PIIE)

Apr

15

Central banking for open economies in a changed world

April 15, 2026, 1:00 PM to 2:00 PM EDT

Anna Breman (Reserve Bank of New Zealand), José Luis Escrivá (Bank of Spain), Patrick Honohan (PIIE), Chang Yong Rhee (Bank of Korea) and Martin Schlegel (Swiss National Bank)

Apr

15

Featured Topics

US Federal Reserve

Patrons exit a supermarket in Florida where consumer prices have soared due to inflation.

The COVID era inflation surge: Causes, consequences, and policy lessons

Karen Dynan (PIIE) and David Wilcox (PIIE)

January 2026

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC.

Trump’s Attack on the Fed Is Already Backfiring

Jason Furman (PIIE)

January 12, 2026

via New York Times

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), at the US Federal Reserve in Washington, DC. Picture taken on December 10, 2025.

Donald Trump May Be About to Pick the Least Important Fed Chair in Decades

Jason Furman (PIIE)

December 16, 2025

via New York Times

Tariffs

Chinese and US flags are displayed.

US-China cooperative interdependence: Opportunities and obstacles

Marcus Noland (PIIE), editor

April 2026

A US flag flutters near shipping containers at the Port of Los Angeles in California, May 2025.

What's next for Trump's tariffs?

Alan Wm. Wolff (PIIE)

April 8, 2026

Highwayman Trump disarmed but not defeated

Marcus Noland (PIIE)

March 23, 2026

via East Asia Forum

Inflation

Customer paying with cash in Washington, DC.

Prices Are High. Here's One Reason Not to Panic.

Jason Furman (PIIE)

April 10, 2026

via New York Times

Cargo ships in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Photo taken March 11, 2026.

Global economy to slow in 2026, and outlook clouded by war, other uncertainties

Karen Dynan (PIIE)

April 9, 2026

A customer shops at a supermarket in New York as consumer prices surged as inflation hits 40-year high.

The worst inflation outbreak in 40 years: Distilling lessons from the COVID era

Karen Dynan (PIIE) and David Wilcox (PIIE), editors

February 2026

China

Chinese and US flags are displayed.

US-China cooperative interdependence: Opportunities and obstacles

Marcus Noland (PIIE), editor

April 2026

A visitor places her hands on a "Tangible Earth" at an exhibition pavilion on Japan's northern island of Hokkaido. July 6, 2008.

Are regional pacts the future of world trade?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang (PIIE)

March 31, 2026

Smoke rises after reported Iranian missile attacks in Doha, following the US and Israel strikes on Iran. Photo taken on March 1, 2026.

How Russia and China are winning the war in Iran

Elina Ribakova (PIIE) and Alicia García-Herrero (Bruegel; Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

March 30, 2026

In The News

Martin Chorzempa

Trump-Xi Agenda to Be Shaped as Negotiators Meet in Paris

via Bloomberg

feat. Martin Chorzempa

Elina Ribakova

As Iran War Pushes Up Oil Prices, Putin Can Barely Conceal a Smirk

via Wall Street Journal

feat. Elina Ribakova

Michael Clemens (featured)

Trump’s Immigration Policies Are Making Us Poorer—and Sicker

via New Republic

feat. Michael A. Clemens

Maurice Obstfeld

Iran war reawakens global inflation fears

via Financial Times

feat. Maurice Obstfeld

Resources

Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

PIIE Chart

Title
Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

PIIE Chart

Title
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide (featured)

RealTime Economics

Title
Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide

Pixel-Shot/Adobe Stock/stock.adobe.com

Microsite

Title
The future of the USMCA

What Is Globalization?

Microsite

Title
What Is Globalization?

Globalization has helped raise incomes almost everywhere since the 1980s

PIIE Chart

Title
Globalization has helped raise incomes almost everywhere since the 1980s